The World Cup Kicked Prediction Market Trading to $31 Billion. But Can the Industry Handle the ‘Pressure Test’?
With record numbers pouring in, can Kalshi and Polymarket sustain the surge once the final whistle blows?
Kalshi and Polymarket had their biggest month ever in June, driven by the FIFA World Cup. Kalshi saw more than $31 billion in notional trading volume, a more than 70% jump from May’s $17.9 billion. Meanwhile, Polymarket’s international exchange set a new monthly record at $10.8 billion, reversing a two-month downtrend, according to CNBC.
Even upstart Rothera — a joint venture between Susquehanna International Group and Robinhood that launched in June — managed $2 billion in its debut month, capturing 7% of the U.S. prediction market.
But the real question isn’t what happens during the World Cup. It’s what happens after. Asaf Meir, CEO of market integrity firm Solidus Labs, told CNBC that regulators and investors are watching closely to see if these platforms can handle sustained high volume safely. “The World Cup is such a huge pressure test,” he said. “Is it safe enough? Is it mature enough? The games gave prediction markets their biggest moment ever. They have to prove it wasn’t just a fluke.
Kalshi and Polymarket had their biggest month ever in June, driven by the FIFA World Cup. Kalshi saw more than $31 billion in notional trading volume, a more than 70% jump from May’s $17.9 billion. Meanwhile, Polymarket’s international exchange set a new monthly record at $10.8 billion, reversing a two-month downtrend, according to CNBC.
Even upstart Rothera — a joint venture between Susquehanna International Group and Robinhood that launched in June — managed $2 billion in its debut month, capturing 7% of the U.S. prediction market.
But the real question isn’t what happens during the World Cup. It’s what happens after. Asaf Meir, CEO of market integrity firm Solidus Labs, told CNBC that regulators and investors are watching closely to see if these platforms can handle sustained high volume safely. “The World Cup is such a huge pressure test,” he said. “Is it safe enough? Is it mature enough? The games gave prediction markets their biggest moment ever. They have to prove it wasn’t just a fluke.
